What to expect at a first 'get-to-know-you' meeting

• Inflation figures appear to be under control. It is above target in the US, while being around 2% in Europe. Reported figures do not show the impact of the sharp rise in oil and gas prices as a result of the unrest in the Middle-East however. Some countries and organisations will use the strategic reserves which helps but does not cause a full reversal in energy prices. 
• In the US the Supreme Court ruled that President Trump did not have the constitutional power to increase tariffs. He reimplemented them shortly after under a different section. In the meantime, the Trump administration is investigating other means to impose tariffs.

• The 'Big Beautiful Bill', which mainly extends the expiring tax cuts from Trump's previous term, is expected to provide a limited boost to growth. Meanwhile, the US government shutdown has been lifted for the time being.
• China continues to regularly support its flagging economy with new policy measures. In the euro area, the major investments announced for defence and infrastructure are gradually taking more concrete shape.
• The ECB kept its deposit rate unchanged at 2% in September, with further movements dependent on economic data. Some voices suggest the ECB might hike rates as a result of the rising energy prices. Our economists do not expect the Bank to cut interest rates further next year. 
• As expected, the Fed kept interest rates on hold. We still expect rates to be cut on two more occasions, but now in the second half of the year instead of the first half. 
• US President Donald Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Fed, though the nomination still has to be passed by the Senate.

• Despite weaker growth, falling inflation and policy rates, bond yields remain at somewhat higher levels in both the US and Europe. 
• The budgetary turn made by the new German government, in which the debt brake was released and a generous budget was allocated for recovery policy and defence spending, explains the higher interest rates in Europe. 
• As a result of inflation fears after the rise in energy prices, interest rates have risen recently.

• Stock markets have again hit new all-time records in recent weeks. The markets got off to a strong start this year after a solid 2025. Earnings forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2025 and for this year are strong, which accounts for the solid performance. 
• The outlook for government investment and investments in AI infrastructure is boosting profits. However, these high valuations and optimistic earnings forecasts reduce the margin of error. The earning season is nearing its end, with a great dispersion but overall a strong growth, certainly in the US.

• The conflict in Iran enters its second week, with diverging messages about the expected further duration.
• The US president wants to acquire Greenland but does not want to use military force. 
• In Ukraine the situation seems to be moving in the right direction but we don’t have a solution yet. 
• Unrest about private credit after a few bankruptcies remain in the back of investors’ minds.