As fraud becomes more sophisticated, so must our defence strategy
Modern fraud doesn’t look suspicious. It sounds familiar, is written flawlessly and seems authentic – and that makes it all the more dangerous. Artificial intelligence (AI) may have created the problem, but it also makes the solution scalable. Companies that use AI to monitor human behaviour, identity and context are a vital link in the digital economy.
Fraud has become hyper-realistic and emotionally persuasive, marking a turning point not only for how we protect ourselves online, but also for how businesses, governments and investors need to approach cybersecurity.
Steven Vermander, Megatrends Expert & Portfolio Manager at KBC Asset Management
Steven Vermander, Megatrends Expert & Portfolio Manager at KBC Asset Management, shares his views on the matter.
Why this is a serious concern
A new type of fraud is repeatedly making the headlines in the Belgian media. Classic phishing e-mails with spelling errors or poor grammar are a thing of the past; modern fraud is almost indistinguishable from reality.
By no means are all those who fall for these scams simple-minded and naive. The newest tactics are designed to bypass rational thinking: time pressure, authority and seemingly personal details. Anyone can be vulnerable at the wrong moment.
Steven Vermander, Megatrends Expert & Portfolio Manager at KBC Asset Management
Earlier this year, for example, the federal authorities warned of scammers who used AI to mimic King Philippe’s voice and even his image in order to persuade victims, in a very subtle way, to transfer money. Other cases involved Flemish celebrities and news anchors being used in authentic-looking videos to make fake investment platforms appear credible. Further examples include WhatsApp investment tips that exploit social proof (such as peer pressure and Fear Of Missing Out) to persuade victims to deposit large sums of money. Public institutions and banks are also increasingly used as bait in these scams. For example, you may receive a phone call, allegedly from your bank, asking you to block a suspicious transaction (ed. always use the ‘Check who’s there’ button in KBC Mobile if this happens), or fake e-mails from mypension.be following a notification saying that official information regarding your pension will be temporarily removed from the site. Cybercriminals eagerly exploit current events to lure you into their trap.
Even companies are targeted: employees receive urgent calls from someone posing as the CEO or CFO, whose voice sounds exactly like them but later turns out to have been generated by AI. A hospital was forced to shut down its servers following a cyberattack. Surgeries were cancelled and services scaled back. This incident illustrates how weaknesses in the supply chain (external software) can act as a gateway.
To make matters worse, cybercrime is becoming more professional. Data theft and social engineering (such as phishing, vishing, and deepfake audio/video) are evolving into a marketplace with data and access brokers and crime-as-a-service. AI is taking the persuasiveness of scams to a whole new level.
Scammers no longer exploit people’s ignorance, but their trust: recognisable voices, familiar faces, trusted authority. That is exactly what makes these attacks so dangerous. Because the incidents are much more convincing, they cause greater damage.
Why AI is also part of the solution
There is an important counterbalance to this reality: while AI can be misused, it can also be leveraged for protection.
In a world of AI-driven attacks, using AI to defend ourselves is not a luxury but a structural necessity.
Steven Vermander, Megatrends Expert & Portfolio Manager at KBC Asset Management
A Security Operations Centre (SOC) is an organisation’s (physical or virtual) cybersecurity command centre. This is where cyber threats are monitored, analysed and managed 24/7.
SOCs are responsible for:
- Monitoring: continuous monitoring of IT systems, networks, cloud environments and endpoints
- Detection: identifying suspicious activities and cyberattacks
- Analysis: assessing an incident’s severity
- Response: taking swift action to limit damage (isolating, blocking, recovering)
- Reporting and improvement: learning from incidents and enhancing security measures
SOCs are evolving from human incident response teams to AI-driven, partly autonomous, defence platforms.
The advantages are clear:
- Speed and scale: AI can analyse millions of signals at once (something that is impossible for humans), allowing suspicious patterns to be identified more quickly, often before any actual damage occurs.
- Behavioural recognition: instead of following fixed rules, AI learns what is considered ‘normal’ behaviour within an organisation or for a user. Any deviations, however subtle, are detected more quickly.
- Less human error: AI filters out noise and helps you focus on what really matters, reducing the risk of crucial signals being lost in the abundance of information.
- AI can act independently: in modern SOCs AI is permitted, albeit under strict conditions, to carry out actions itself, such as isolating a device from the network, temporarily blocking an account or terminating a malicious connection. These are crucial actions in cases involving ransomware or data theft, where every minute counts.
- Continuous improvement: after every incident, AI learns what was correct. It adapts its models, thereby reducing future false positives, transforming cybersecurity into an adaptive, self-learning system, with the SOC becoming smarter after every attack.
In other words: AI makes cybersecurity more proactive and consistent, and less dependent on scarce human expertise. And that is exactly what is needed right now, with attacks escalating in terms of both speed and sophistication.
The legal framework for cybersecurity in Belgium
It is notable that cyber risks increasingly intersect with other major themes such as geopolitics, energy supply, supply chains and even democratic processes, with digital sabotage being used to create social unrest and influence decision-making.
The European NIS2 Directive (Network and Information Security Directive 2) aims to enhance Europe’s digital resilience against cyberattacks, IT failures and digital disruption. Consequently, cybersecurity has become a continuous and structural responsibility at management and board level.
For most companies, this means:
- Permanent monitoring of digital risks
- Mandatory incident reporting
- Demonstrable preventive measures
- Attention to the entire digital chain, including suppliers
Cybersecurity is shifting from an operational cost to a strategic governance issue. Organisations that fail to invest consistently are not only exposed to operational risks, but also to legal and reputational risks.
Steven Vermander, Megatrends Expert & Portfolio Manager at KBC Asset Management
Cyber resilience: living with the inevitable
There is no such thing as 100% cybersecurity. The real question is: how quickly and how effectively can an organisation respond when things go wrong? The focus is shifting from pure prevention to cyber resilience:
- Clear crisis procedures
- Segmented IT environments
- Continuous backups
- And last but not least: employee awareness
Belgian studies show that almost half of Flemish companies have now experienced a cyber incident, and that human error still plays a crucial role in this regard.
The shift towards investment: opportunities and risks
For investors, this presents a two-sided challenge.
The opportunities:
- Structural growth: the combination of AI-driven threats and more stringent regulations is creating long-term demand for advanced cybersecurity solutions.
- High entry thresholds: companies that succeed in delivering reliable, scalable and AI-driven security are building strong positions and recurring income streams.
- Broad impact: from technology companies to financial institutions and industrial players, cybersecurity is finding its way into virtually every sector.
The risks:
- Technological acceleration: not every player can keep up the pace. Organisations that fail to innovate sufficiently risk becoming irrelevant quickly.
- Complexity: AI systems also introduce new risks, such as dependence on data, models and regulations.
- Selectivity required: this is no one-size-fits-all investment theme. Quality, scale and governance will make the difference.
Cybersecurity is not a product you simply buy and forget about. It’s a discipline designed to prevent major damage, both in your personal life and in a professional context.
Steven Vermander, Megatrends Expert & Portfolio Manager at KBC Asset Management
In practical terms: what opportunities can investors capitalise on?
- AI-driven cybersecurity platforms: companies that use AI to detect abnormal behaviour, to combine identity, device and context, and to identify fraud before any damage is done. Structural demand comes from banks, businesses and governments, among others.
- SOC automation and Extended Detection & Response (XDR): a security platform that detects threats and responds to them across multiple security layers. Human SOC teams can no longer keep up with the required pace. AI is needed to correlate signals and respond when necessary.
- Identity and behavioural security: fraud is increasingly focused on who someone appears to be, rather than what they are technically doing, leading to growth in solutions in, for example, identity security, zero-trust applications or continuous authentication.
- Managed Security Service Provider (MSSP): an external partner that manages and monitors all or part of your cybersecurity. More and more companies are outsourcing complex security operations.
Cybersecurity is a long-term growth trend, but not a straightforward one. Many companies in the sector are trading at high valuations and the volatility is significant. For investors, this means there’s a focus on selectivity regarding company names, diversification across segments, technologies and regions and, above all, a long-term vision.
Anyone who views cybersecurity as part of a broader digitalisation process and economic resilience will understand why this theme deserves a place within a diversified portfolio.
Steven Vermander, Megatrends Expert & Portfolio Manager at KBC Asset Management
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The information contained in this publication is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice.